2026 World Matchplay Preview: Quarter-by-Quarter Analysis & Predictions

Can anyone stop Luke Littler from defending the Phil Taylor Trophy?

There is arguably no tournament in professional darts that commands the same level of prestige as the World Matchplay.

Every July, the iconic Winter Gardens in Blackpool becomes the centre of the darting world.

Since 1994, legends of the sport have lit up the Empress Ballroom to get their hands on the prestigious trophy, from Michael van Gerwen and Luke Littler to Phil Taylor - the 16-time champion of the event that the trophy is now named after.

The format itself is what makes this tournament so special, with the Top 16 players in the PDC Order of Merit facing off against the Top 16 players from the one-year rolling Pro Tour Order of Merit.

It is the 32 best players in world darts over the last 12 months battling it out in long-format darts inside one of the sport's most iconic venues.

Quite simply, it doesn't get much better than that.

This year feels every bit as exciting.

World No.1 Luke Littler arrives in Blackpool not only as defending champion, but with the opportunity to write another chapter in what has already become one of the greatest careers the sport has ever seen.

If the 19-year-old lifts the trophy next Sunday evening, he will become just the fourth player in history to successfully defend the World Matchplay, joining Rod Harrington, Phil Taylor and Michael van Gerwen in an exclusive club.

Yet while Littler once again arrives as the overwhelming favourite, large sections of the draw feel incredibly open, with opportunities presenting themselves throughout.

That unpredictability is what makes the World Matchplay so special.

Whilst the Winter Gardens is smaller than most darts arenas these days, with a capacity of around 2,000 inside the Empress Ballroom, it remains one of the most electric atmospheres in darts, often regarded as the home of the "proper darts fans".

People who book full weeks, have attended for years, and truly appreciate the event and show a level of respect for the players that you often do not see in all darts venues these days.

Combine that with the summer feel-good factor of the seaside and the world's best players battling it out over long-format darts, and it makes for another unforgettable week in the darts calendar.

With that in mind, let's get into my quarter-by-quarter guide as to how I think the 2026 World Matchplay will unfold.

QUARTER ONE:

If there is one section of the draw that appears the most straightforward on paper, it is Quarter One.

Luke Littler is the obvious headline act, but that is not to say there are not dangerous contendors beneath the defending champion.

'The Nuke' opens against debutant Niko Springer, and while the draw could certainly have been tougher, he will not have everything his own way.

The German No.3 won his first PDC title in 2025, lifting the Hungarian Darts Trophy, while qualifying for his first World Matchplay appearance in eighth on the one-year Pro Tour Order of Merit.

Springer has proved capable of producing elite numbers, averaging 115.92 at the 2025 UK Open, but the concern remains his consistency.

We have seen moments of brilliance alongside spells where the range in his averages is simply far too big and his level drops significantly.

That will be the biggest challenge against Littler.

'Meenzer Bub' will need to produce his 'A' game, and sustain it over the longer format if he is to have any chance of causing a huge opening-round upset.

Elsewhere, 2023 Champion Nathan Aspinall faces one of the most intriguing opening-round matches against his good friend Joe Cullen.

Aspinall's record against 'The Rockstar' is exceptional, winning their last seven meetings, with Cullen's last victory coming back in February 2021.

However, the biggest question surrounding 'The Asp' is which version of himself turns up in Blackpool.

His ceiling remains world-class, but his consistency has been questioned throughout 2026. The World No.16 admits that he is unsure which version of himself will turn up on stage.

Cullen, meanwhile, has quietly pieced together a far steadier campaign than perhaps many realise.

After winning two Players Championship titles in 2025, he has raised his seasonal average to 94.37 in 2026, an increase of 2.61 from last year.

He now looks a far more consistent player than the one who struggled for long periods last year despite two good days on the Pro Tour.

These two have history on this stage, with Aspinall defeating Cullen 17-9 in the semi-finals in 2023 before going on to lift the trophy.

While I still favour the former Champion to edge through, this has all the makings of an opening night shock.

The standout first-round tie in this quarter could come between Josh Rock and Luke Woodhouse.

The pair are separated by just 0.28 in their seasonal averages in 2026, highlighting how closely matched they are.

Rock remains one of the most naturally gifted players on the circuit and has repeatedly shown his ability on the biggest stages, despite a disappointing debut Premier League campaign.

However, Woodhouse arguably arrives in the better form.

The Bewdley thrower has enjoyed a breakthrough season, winning his maiden Players Championship title and first European Tour event just 12 days apart, finally shaking off the tag of being the highest-ranked player without a PDC ranking title.

This game could be the tie that decides whether Littler faces a genuine challenge in this section.

The final match of the Quarter One sees Stephen Bunting face debutant Niels Zonneveld.

Bunting heads into his 11th World Matchplay appearance as one of the more experienced players in the draw, but after a career-best season in 2025, in which he won six of his ten PDC titles, his level has dipped slightly this year.

He is yet to win a title in 2026 and arrives needing a deep run to help his ranking.

For Zonneveld, he has improved his overall level and holds some statistical advantages, including a better checkout percentage, which could become crucial if Bunting continues to struggle on the outer ring.

However, experience matters on the Winter Gardens stage, and Bunting has won all five previous meetings between the pair, so I would expect the World No.9 to see off debutant Zonneveld.

Ultimately, this still feels like Luke Littler's quarter to lose.

The likes of the in-form Woodhouse and former Champion Aspinall can cause him problems, but the defending champion possesses too much scoring power, confidence and big stage experience for anyone in this section to consistently live with him, especially over a longer format.

Quarter One Prediction:

Luke Littler defeats Luke Woodhouse to make the semi-finals.

QUARTER TWO:

While Michael van Gerwen is the favourite to progress from Quarter Two, it is nowhere near as clear-cut as Quarter One.

The Dutchman sits at the top of Quarter Two, as a three-time World Matchplay champion and one of the greatest players in the history of the sport.

Howeve, this feels like one of the biggest years and tournaments of his career.

Currently ranked World No.4, he still arrives in Blackpool capable of producing mesmerising performances, such as the 122.34 average he produced in a 7-0 demolition of Martin Schindler at Players Championship 15.

The problem is the consistency that once made him untouchable has completely disappeared.

Since reaching the 2025 World Championship final, he has progressed beyond the quarter-finals in just one ranking major, while also missing the Premier League play-offs in consecutive seasons for the first time in his career.

With World Matchplay runner-up money and World Championship runner-up money to defend, the pressure is building.

Provisionally he sits 19th in the world rankings after the 2027 World Championship, an unthinkable fall for a player who has not been outside the world's top eight since 2011.

Standing in his way in the opening round is Andrew Gilding.

The 2023 UK Open champion has turned the Winter Gardens into a happy hunting ground, reaching back-to-back quarter-finals in 2024 and 2025.

More importantly, he has shown he can beat van Gerwen when it matters.

After losing their opening six meetings, Gilding has won three of their last five, including that famous UK Open final victory in 2023 and a 6-4 European Tour win last month.

Van Gerwen will enter as favourite, but this is a tricky opener.

Gilding arrives full of confidence after winning his maiden Players Championship title this season, and I believe he can produce one of the shocks of the opening round.

Elsewhere, Chris Dobey once again arrives as one of the stadnout performers on the floor circuit.

The World No.13 has raised his seasonal average from 96.87 to 97.63 in 2026, winning two Players Championship titles.

The ability has never been in question, it is whether he can consistently translate that form onto the major stage.

Despite his ranking, Dobey has made just two quarter-finals in his last ten ranking majors and has won only four matches across six previous World Matchplay appearances.

His opening round opponent Dirk van Duijvenbode, poses a big threat.

Both rank among the tournament's biggest scorers with 0.39 171-180s per leg, but both have also shown frailities on the outer ring.

Expect plenty of maximums, missed doubles and big momentum swings, with whoever holds their nerve late on likely to progress.

However, Dobey's more relaxed approach compared to the all-action style of his opponent, may just give him the edge as he bids to translate his floor form into a deep televised run.

The bottom half of the quarter begins with Jonny Clayton against Damon Heta.

Clayton, the World No.5, has had another strong season statistically, but is still searching for his first title of 2026.

The Welshman has reached three Pro Tour finals this season, and enjoyed another excellent Premier League campaign, but warning signs have appeared in recent weeks.

He has recorded just one 100+ average in his last 11 matches and squandered a 4-0 lead against Luke Woodhouse at last weekend's European Darts Open.

Heta's numbers have dipped slightly in 2026, particularly his win percentage dropping from 65% to 52%, but his recent European Tour form has been encouraging, reaching two semi-finals in his last three events.

'The Heat' leads their head-to-head 8-7 including victories over Clayton in both the UK Open and Grand Slam.

This feels like a match that hinges on Clayton. If he finds his best level early, he should progress comfortably, but if he starts slowly, Heta is more than capable of producing an upset.

The final tie sees Gary Anderson take on Ryan Joyce.

On paper, it is one of the biggest statistical mismatches of the opening round, with Anderson averaging 98.28 this season compared to Joyce's 90.78 - the lowest seasonal average of the 32-player field.

Wihle Anderson's scoring remains among the world's best, his lack of match practice and recent major record leave concerns.

Since lifting the World Matchplay title in 2018, 'The Flying Scotsman' has suffered two first round exits and four second round exits at the Winter Gardens, with the one further final he reached in 2020 played behind closed doors in Milton Keynes during lockdown.

Joyce has shown flashes this season, including a run to the Baltic Sea Darts Open final, but the range in his performances is too big right now to suggest he can live with Anderson over the longer format.

His lowest average this season dropped to a worrying 73.39, and he is not producing the numbers that suggest he can be competitive.

Ultimately, this quarter feels like a huge opportunity for Chris Dobey.

Michael van Gerwen remains capable of blowing the quarter away, while Anderson and Clayton both possess the pedigree to navigate their way through.

However, Dobey has been one of the strongest performers statistically throughout 2026, and I believe this could be the tournament where he backs up that floor form on the big stage.

Quarter Two Prediction:

Chris Dobey defeats Gary Anderson to reach his first World Matchplay semi-final.

QUARTER THREE:

With Quarter One belonging to Luke Littler and Quarter Two appearing the most open, Quarter Three feels like the heavyweight section of the draw, featuring two of Littler's biggest rivals.

Luke Humphries and Gerwyn Price headline a quarter packed with quality, alongside former champion Rob Cross, and 2026 Pro Tour title winners Ross Smith, Kevin Doets and Cameron Menzies amongst it.

Humphries enters this event playing arguably the best darts of his career statistically.

The World No.2 boasts the highest seasonal average of 2026 at an astonishing 101.09, 0.41 higher than Littler's.

He has won two Players Championships, a European Tour title, and a World Series event this season, with the only thing missing being a major title, having been denied by Littler in both the final of the Premier League and World Masters.

Since rediscovering his fluent action that he briefly tinkered with during the Premier League, 'Cool Hand' has looked back to his brilliant best.

He reached the final of the Nordic Darts Masters before defending his US Darts Masters crown - the only two events he has played in the last seven weeks.

His opening round opponent is Cameron Menzies, whose journey to Blackpool has been one of the stories of the season.

After a torrid start to 2026, following his emotional World Championship exit, the Scot admitted he had even considered walking away from the professional game, putting his CV on Indeed.

Fast forward six months from that injury and outburst, and he is in a much better place mentally and won Players Championship 23 - his third PDC ranking title - just twelve days ago.

The problem for Menzies has never been ability, but his consistency.

At the inaugral Slovak Darts Open last month, he averaged 78 in his opening round against a regional qualifier before dismantling Gerwyn Price with a 106 average, only to then average 90 in a last 16 defeat to debutant Tom Sykes.

On his day he is capable of troubling anybody, but over the best-of-19 leg format, I would expect Humphries to simply have too much.

Perhaps the most intruiging contest in this quarter pits Ross Smith against Kevin Doets.

Much has been made of the Dutch debutant in 2026 after a breakthrough campaign.

Doets has improved his seasonal average from 91.76 in 2025 to 96.37 in 2026 - an increase of 4.61, the eighth best seasonal average in the world.

He has also landed a maiden Players Championship title in May and reached his first European Tour final, making him one of the most improved players on the circuit.

However, despite his impressive season, he is still on debut at the Winter Gardens and that is still a nervewracking experience no matter who the player is.

'Smudger' is quietly enjoying the best season of his career, winning his first European Tour title at the International Darts Open in May alongside two Players Championship victories.

His televised major record needs work though, with no quarter-finals in his last 10, however all the signs this season suggest he could deliver a deep run very soon.

The World.15 has shown excellent consistency on the Pro Tour and sits third on the year-to-date Order of Merit behind only Luke Littler and Wessel NIjman.

Doets has the talent to make a instant impact on debut, but experience on the Winter Gardens stage can count for a lot, and I think Smith edges an extremely tight game that could even go to a tie-breaker.

The bottom half of the draw opens with World No.7 Gerwyn Price taking on Martin Schindler.

Price is quite possibly the biggest enigma in darts right now.

He often looks unbothered about playing the sport at times and does not apply himself, missing a lot of events for various reasons.

Yet his numbers and rate of winning titles are extraordinary, and he firmly remains one of the elite performers in the world.

He is averaging a stunning 99.36 across 2026, with only Humphries and Littler produciing a higher standard statistically.

'The Iceman' has also won a Players Championship title and European Tour title this season, - a decent haul considering his lack of participation this year.

Although his last ranking major title came back in 2021, the Welshman has consistently been knocking on the door, reaching five semi-finals in his last six televised majors, more often than not running into either Littler or Humphries and being edged out in a tight game.

Without a shadow of doubt, he still holds the ability to go all the way.

Schindler, meanwhile, arrives badly out of form.

The German has lost his last five matches, has failed to win a World Matchplay match in four previous appearances, and has seen both his seasonal average and win percentage fall signficantly this season.

He has made just two televised major quarter-finals in 47 events, with the last coming at the 2023 World Grand Prix.

Just last weekend, he exited the first round of the European Darts Open with a 79.12 average, while 33% of his averages this season have been below 90, suggesting he will struggle to live with Price's scoring power if they both perform to type.

The final first round tie of this quarter sees Danny Noppert take on Rob Cross.

Cross looked an outsider to even reach the Winter Gardens earlier this year but has enjoyed a remarkable resurgence in recent months.

He won his first ranking title in 16 months at Players Championship 22 in June before reaching the final of the Slovak Darts Open just four days later, losing out to Wessel Nijman in the final.

This propelled him comfortably into the qualifying spots for his 10th consecutive World Matchplay appearance as he rediscovered the form that had seemingly deserted him over the previous 12-18 months.

Meanwhile, Noppert continues to go about his business with consistent performances, reaching the quarter-finals of both the World Masters and UK Open earlier this year and remaining one of the most reliable players on tour.

We know exactly what to come to expect of Noppert, an average in the mid 90s and a strong doubling percentage.

This feels like one of the tigther opening ties, but over the longer format on the big stage, I just trust Noppert's level a little more despite Cross' recent resurgence.

Overall, you would statistically expect a fascinating quarter-final showdown between Luke Humphries and Gerwyn Price.

However, I think this is the tournament for Ross Smith to build on an outstanding Pro Tour season and topple the World No.2 in the second round, setting up a last 8 meeting with the Welshman instead.

Price continues to post world-class numbers and, if he can find his best game in Blackpool, there is no reason why he cannot reach a second final at the Winter Gardens, especially with Humphries exiting in the round previous.

Quarter Three Prediction:

Gerwyn Price defeats Ross Smith to reach the semi-finals.

QUARTER FOUR:

If there is one player outside of Luke Littler, Luke Humphries and Gerwyn Price generating the most excitement heading into Blackpool, it is Wessel Nijman.

The bookmakers have installed the Dutchman as the third favourite to lift the Phil Taylor trophy, and it is easy to see why.

Nijman is enjoying one of the greatest Pro Tour seasons in history.

His seasonal average is 97.70, the fifth highest in the world, alongside an astonishing 81% match win percentage that reflects a player who has become a serial winner.

Already this season he has claimed six Players Championship titles and two European Tour crowns.

To put that achievement into perspective, he has won eight ranking titles in 2026 alone.

This level of dominance on the Pro Tour has previously only been associated with Michael van Gerwen during his peak years.

The only box left to tick is whether the 26-year-old can finally produce that level on the major stage.

Despite this being his 18th televised major event, Nijman is still yet to reach a quarter-final, something that feels bizarre given the standard he has produced everywhere else.

His opening opponent is Dave Chisnall, who sneaked into the final qualifying spot by just £750 ahead of Daryl Gurney.

The 26-time PDC title winner deserves enormous credit simply for reaching his 16th consecutive World Matchplay after looking almost certain to miss out.

However, his numbers are concerning.

Chisnall's seasonal average is 90.82, the 65th best in the world, while 44% of his matches this season has seen him average below 90.

Nijman has won all three previous meetings between the pair, and on current form, this looks the most one-sided first-round tie of the tournament.

The top half of the draw begins with a fascinating contest between Gian van Veen and Krzysztof Ratajski.

'The Giant's rise to World No.3 during 2025 was remarkable, but 2026 has been a far more difficult campaign.

After winning the European Championship and reaching the World Championship final, he suddenly found himself among the elite, but adapting to those expecations has proved challenging.

A kidney stone operation, the demands of his increased schedule and increased pressure has all contributed to a signficant decline in his numbers.

His seasonal average has fallen from 98.21 to 95.14, while his match win percentage has dropped from 72% to 56%.

Also, his first-round opponent arrives in excellent form.

Ratajski lifted the European Darts Open title last weekend and continues to prove why he remains one of the most underrated players on tour.

The Dutchman himself has admitted he is still adapting to life among the very best and does not see himself at that level consistently right now.

The Pole sits 10th on the year-to-date Order of Merit compared to van Veen in 21st, and having also beaten van Veen just six days ago, a repeat outcome would not surprise me.

The bottom half opens with another difficult match to call between James Wade and Jermaine Wattimena.

The Winter Gardens has always brought the best out of Wade, with the 2007 champion reaching seven finals across a remarkable 21 consecutive appearances.

However, there are signs that his level has dipped in recent weeks.

Last weekend, his three averages at the European Darts Open were 89.58, 86.54 and 86.71.

His opening-round opponent is Wattimena, who arrivees full of confidence after reaching a maiden European Tour final six days ago, and has also made two Players Championship finals in 2026.

Significantly, Wattimena has won the last four meetings between the pair, all on a stage, including victories at both the World Championship and European Championship.

The final first-round tie sees Ryan Searle face debutant Willie O'Connor.

After 16 years on the professional circuit, O'Connor finally makes his long-awaited debut at the Winter Gardens, and few players deserve the opportunity more.

However, his recent form is concerning.

The Irishman has failed to average above 90 in each of his last eight matches and will have to improve massively to trouble Searle.

Although 'Heavy Metal' has often struggled to translate his floor form onto the biggest stages, his scoring power should get him over the line in this longer format.

Overall, this feels like Wessel Nijman's quarter to lose.

Questions remain over his televised record, but there comes a point where sustained excellence simply has to transfer onto the major stage.

Let's not forget, he won his EIGHTH ranking title on June 21, just over halfway through the year.

Only four players in PDC history have won 10 or more ranking titles in a single season - Michael van Gerwen, Phil Taylor, Peter Wright, Luke Littler. Nijman could very well join that exclusive club this year.

This finally feels like the tournament where that phenomenal Pro Tour form is rewarded with the deep televised run it deserves.

Quarter Four Prediction:

Wessel Nijman defeats Ryan Searle to reach his first major televised semi-final.

Semi-Finals & Final Prediction

After working through the draw, my semi-final line-up for next Saturday is Luke Littler vs Chris Dobey and Gerwyn Price vs Wessel Nijman.

From there, I think we get one of the most electric match-ups in darts right now, with Littler and Price meeting in a major final for the very first time.

The pair have produced some spectacular contests over the last 18 months, but more often than not it has been Littler who has found the answers in the biggest moments.

Price has the scoring power to overcome anyone, and on his day, remains one of the few players capable of matching the World No.1 blow for blow.

However, Littler is simply the most complete player in the field.

His relentless scoring, clutch finishing, and calmness under pressure set him apart, and while I expect him to be pushed during this tournament, I believe the defending champion will once again find a way.

Victory at the Winter Gardens would see the 19-year-old become just the fourth player in history to successfully retain the Phil Taylor trophy, and move another step closer to holding every major title on the PDC calendar at the same time.

Quick-Fire Predictions

🏆 Champion: Luke Littler

🥈 Runner-up: Gerwyn Price

🥉 Semi-finalists: Chris Dobey & Wessel Nijman

🎯 Dark Horse: Luke Woodhouse

📈 Player to exceed expectations: Chris Dobey

📉 Biggest disappointment: Michael van Gerwen

🔥 Best first-round match: Ross Smith vs Kevin Doets (Smith to edge a tiebreaker)

⚡ Biggest first-round upset: Andrew Gilding to beat Michael van Gerwen in Round 1

💥 Bold prediction: James Wade - 2025 finalist goes out in Round 1.